Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

173 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 61: Trend projections for Cannabis sales 2018 to 2023, data INSIGHT Health If, on the other hand, the tax values are frozen at the average value of € 659 per preparation in the second quarter of 2019, the sales value for 2023 will be reduced by approximately € 500 million to just under € 2.6 billion. 11.6 Trend projections for pharmacy purchases of Cannabis flowers 2018-2023 A different view of the future development of the Cannabis market in Germany can be obtained on the procurement side from the data on purchases of Cannabis flowers by pharmacies. So far, the data quality is only good enough for the purchase quantities, but not the purchase prices, to calculate pro- jections with meaningfulness. The previous analyses have shown that since spring 2017, new suppliers with new flower products have come onto the market practically every month and that pharmacies have made increasing use of these offers - albeit with regular fluctuations - over the course of the months. In standard units, i.e. measured in grams, the quantity of Cannabis flowers purchased from pharmacies more than doubled from 482 kg in the first quarter of 2018 to 1,025 kg in the second quarter of 2019. If this previous development of pharmacy purchases is extrapolated in line with the trend, projec- tions result for the next five years which, starting from the almost 2.8 tonnes in 2018, come to values between almost 11 tons (linear projection) and a good 48 tons (exponential projection) by 2023. The linear projection alone indicates an annual demand for Cannabis flowers in four years, which is greater than the quantity licensed by the BfArM for four years in Germany. 341412,738 126544,213 3136018,592 74866,220 327571,314 2576949,284 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Trend projections for SHI Cannabis sales until 2023 (AVP or appraised values in € thousand) Linear price dynamic Exponential price dynamics Linear price stable Exponential price stability