Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

174 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 62: Trend projections for pharmacy purchases of Cannabis flowers 2018 to 2023, data INSIGHT Health 11.7 Projection of market turnover Projections for the weight of Cannabis preparations processed by pharmacies can also be derived from the projections of packaging units purchased by pharmacies in the future and their contents in grams. It can in turn be used cum grano salis as a measure of the demand for Cannabis flowers for medical purposes in the outpatient sector of the German health care system. For the transformation of the packing units into weight quantities, it is assumed for the sake of simplicity that the distribution of the packing units according to individual weights remains unchanged: ▪ 67% of the purchased packs contain 5g of Cannabis flower, ▪ 27% are 10g packs, ▪ 5% packages of 20g and ▪ 1% packages with 25g of Cannabis Under this assumption, it follows that between 11 tonnes (linear projection) and 48 tonnes (expo- nential projection) of Cannabis flowers will be required for the outpatient medical use of Cannabis Germany by 2023. Extrapolating the estimated amount of Cannabis demand using current prices leads to the following hypothetical market size: Per patient per month 30 g flowers x 12 = 360 g annual requirement; at a price of approx. 12 € per gram, this then amounts to 4,320 € 5.995 7.637 9.280 10.923 4.332 8.064 14.643 26.590 48.284 2.729 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Trend projections for pharmacy purchasing of Cannabis flowers until 2023 (weight in kg) Linear Exponential