Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

172 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ Such a development seems unrealistic at first sight. However, this is put into perspective against the background of the statements quoted above that one to two percent of the population need Can- nabis products to alleviate their suffering and for Germany this means at least a twenty-fold increase in the number of patients. Assuming that the number of prescriptions per patient is a stable figure, the current 200,000 prescriptions will become 4 million prescriptions if at least one percent of the popu- lation is supplied. Figure 60: Trend projection of Cannabis prescriptions 2018 to 2023, data INSIGHT Health 11.5 Trend projections of Cannabis sales 2018-2023 With the projections for Cannabis prescriptions at the expense of the SHI system, estimates can also be made of what expenditure will be incurred by the SHI system as a result, i.e. how turnover on the SHI Cannabis market could develop. In addition to the number of prescriptions, the prices of fin- ished medicinal products and of preparations come into play as further variables. While the former are assumed to be stable over time, two alternatives exist for the tax values for preparations: In the first, price-dynamic variant , the trend projections for preparations sales are calculated on the basis of quar- terly sales to date; this also includes the assumption that the previous increase in average tax values for preparations will continue unchanged. This does not seem very realistic. Therefore, in a second, price-stable variant, future revenues are calculated by multiplying the above recipe projections by the current tax values assumed to be stable in the second quarter of 2019. If both the prescription numbers and the tax values for preparations continue to rise as before, the SHI turnover (including prescription fees) for Cannabis treatments will increase from about 125 million euro this year to 341 million euro in the linear projection and to 3.1 billion euro in the exponential projection by 2023. 299,479 380,103 460,727 541,351 216,832 452,428 912,451 1888,866 3975,328 140,255 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Trend projections for the SHI Cannabis prescriptions until 2023 (in thousands) Linear Exponential