Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

181 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ Quintessence Everything flows or "panta rhei" as the ancient Greeks said. Further developments in the German Cannabis market can hardly be seriously predicted, as the number of stakeholders is disproportionately large and their influence is increasing. The political constellation of the governing coalition, i.e. with the participation of the Greens, the FDP and the Left Party, also has a great influence on the further development of the Cannabis market in Germany. The many influencing factors complicate the current picture of the Cannabis market and make a longer-term prognosis difficult. There is still a danger that the German Cannabis market will develop similarly to the dot.commarket shortly after the turn of the millennium. There will probably be many losers and few real winners in this market. Today's prices will fall sharply, especially for Cannabis substances used for prescription drugs. In contrast, prices for finished drugs will remain stable and new finished drugs with Cannabinoid APIs will continue to achieve good prices on the market. The suppliers of clearly defined Cannabinoid molecules (API) will be among the winners. Many patients will be rather disappointed by the therapy with Cannabis. Fewer patients will be able to live much better with their disease through Cannabis. This causes dissatisfaction among the payers, because the costs of Cannabis therapy are clearly disproportionate to the medical effects caused by it. The market for medical Cannabis will grow, but the limits to this growth are already apparent. We consider the forecasts of the German Cannabis market in the next 5 to 10 years with a market volume of between five and eight billion euros, which are listed in reports by several other authors, to be simply fiction without any realistic basis in current market data. Even the values calculated in this Business Report with the exponential trend projection would mean that the German health care system would have to spend about 10% of health care expenditure on the treatment of 1% of the population, we consider a daydream.