Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

180 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ Supply level in Canada If one looks at the adoption of doctors and patients for Cannabis therapy in Canada, it is easy to see that, in a target population of 500,000 potential Cannabis patients, less than half of this number was reached after 10 years. Canada is the 'pioneer' in the use of medicinal Cannabis and, in addition, Cannabis has been re- leased in Canada for 'recreational use' for the population over 18 years of age since this year. While Canada can be described as having a Cannabis affinity, in Germany, at the population level, alcohol consumption is still the widespread possibility of legal "addiction". If one takes the adoption curve in Canada as a blueprint, this will take at least 10 years or rather much longer for Germany. Or, due to the lack of evidence of Cannabis therapy, we will never reach this level. Figure 65: Development of the penetration rate in Canada, Grothenhermen source All considerations and projections presented in this section assume that the market is not signifi- cantly affected by legal and/or regulatory measures. This is, however, a rather unrealistic assumption, because above a certain turnover threshold of the Cannabis market, clear counter-reactions of the health insurance funds and ultimately also of the legislator can be expected. 1700 12000 60000 200000 2007 2012 2016 2017 (estimation) Number of cannabis patients in Canada Long-term expectation: 500.000 patients = 1,33 % of the population