Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

167 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ The development of the German Cannabis market will probably proceed in three phases. Figure 59: Future development of the Cannabis market in Germany 1. The initial phase A from 2017 to 2019 is more likely to be "wild" disorderly growth. Here mainly also pull-effects came from the many existing Cannabis-experienced patients to carry. 2. In the following phase B the pull-effect significantly and a push effect is increasingly being used as market drivers are effective, because in the years 2020 to 2023 once again, many new and potent competitors into the German Cannabis market. 3. From 2024 onwards, the market is expected to enter a phase C of consolidation. The market development of the German Cannabis market also depends to a large extent on the respective Federal Government, because it is ultimately a politically desired market. The positions of the relevant parties regarding the use of medical Cannabis are largely similar, as all parties have a positive attitude towards this use, although the attitude differs with regards to the necessary approval procedures and with regards to reimbursement by health insurance companies. As far as the release of Cannabis for recreational use is concerned, no uniform line can yet be found within the spectrum of parties, as positions range from complete rejection to complete liberalisation. This will not change significantly in the next 5 years. However, we will probably be able to observe a small number of model experiments (§§ 65 and 65 SGBV) for the personal use of Cannabis in the different federal states. In 2022, the Federal Joint Committee will decide, on the basis of the data from the concomitant survey, how the reimbursement of Cannabis will continue in Germany. This can lead to a completely dif- ferent development of the market. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pull Mar- ket Push market G-BA Consolidation A B C