Medicinal cannabis in Germany - Business Report

179 Confidential __________________________________________________________________________________ 11.10 Coverage of Cannabis patients in Germany 2019 to 2033 From experience in countries such as Canada, the Netherlands, Switzerland and several US states with the liberalisation of the use of medicinal Cannabis, it is known that at least 1% of the population becomes a Cannabis patient. In the US state of Colorado, the share is even stated as 2%. If we apply the 1% rule to Germany, we arrive at the following forecast. By the end of 2018, we expect to have about 40,000 Cannabis patients in Germany. With a resident population of around 82 million people, we have therefore achieved a real supply rate of just under 5% after 2 years. Much will depend on the future prescription behaviour of doctors and how quickly the coverage rate will ap- proach the 1% threshold. Assuming an annual increase of 5%, we would reach a coverage rate of about 30 to 40% in 2023 and only in about 10 to 15 years the target of 800,000 Cannabis patients in Germany. If one takes the results from countries such as Canada, Israel or the USA, where the use of medicinal Cannabis has been permitted for years, one can assume that 1% of the population are Cannabis patients. For Germany, this would mean around 800,000 patients. According to the available prescription data, we assume that there are 40,000 Cannabis patients as of 06/2019 ➔ Thus, the Cannabis supply rate in Ger- many is currently around 5% . It is difficult to predict how quickly we will reach the 1% coverage rate at population level in Ger- many. However, this will be the case in the end, as the coverage rate in the neighbouring country, the Netherlands, is also well above 1% today. Figure 64: Level of coverage in Germany 800.000 40.000 0 40.000 400.000 800.000 Number of Cannabis patients in thousands 200.000 600.000